Freight rates and capacity are driven less by demand than by the dates factories stop. Between now and spring 2027 there are five closures that move cargo, and the biggest of them has not had its official dates announced yet. Here is what is confirmed, what is not, and when to book.
Confirmed dates come from official government holiday notices. Where a government has not yet published its 2027 arrangement, that is stated explicitly rather than estimated — checked 16 August 2026.
The calendar
| Closure | Dates | Status | Affects |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Autumn Festival (China) | 25-27 Sep 2026 | Confirmed | China — short, but immediately before Golden Week |
| Chuseok (Korea) | 24-26 Sep 2026 | Confirmed | Korean exports |
| Golden Week (China National Day) | 1-7 Oct 2026 | Confirmed | All China origins — the year's second-biggest stoppage |
| Diwali (India) | 8 Nov 2026 (festival 6-10 Nov) | Confirmed | Indian manufacturing and clearance |
| Chinese New Year | Festival day 6 Feb 2027 | Holiday window not yet announced | China, and the whole global network |
| Tet (Vietnam) | Festival day 6 Feb 2027 | Holiday window not yet announced | Vietnamese exports |
| Seollal (Korea) | 7 Feb 2027 — one day later than China | Confirmed date | Korean lanes |
| Ramadan begins | ~8 Feb 2027 (moon-dependent) | Approximate by nature | Middle East, Indonesia, Malaysia |
| Golden Week (Japan) | 29 Apr, 3-5 May 2027 | Confirmed | Japanese exports |
Two dates that catch people out
Mid-Autumn does not merge into Golden Week this year. The 2026 arrangement puts Mid-Autumn on 25-27 September and returns 28, 29 and 30 September to working days before National Day starts on 1 October. Anyone planning a continuous two-week China shutdown in that window is wrong — but the working days between two holidays are the most congested of the quarter.
Korea splits from China in 2027. Chinese New Year falls on 6 February; Korean Seollal falls on 7 February — a genuine one-day divergence caused by the different meridians used to calculate the new moon. Treating "Lunar New Year" as one Asia-wide date will put your Korean bookings on the wrong side of the holiday. Vietnam stays aligned with China.
What we cannot tell you yet
China's State Council publishes the following year's holiday arrangement around November, and Vietnam announces Tet separately in late in the year. The 2027 windows for both are not yet published. Third-party calendars are already showing confident date ranges that disagree with each other — treat them as guesses.
For scale, China's 2026 Spring Festival ran nine days (15-23 February), the longest on record. Planning on something similar for 2027 is reasonable; printing it as fact is not.
How long factories are actually down
The public holiday is the smallest part of it. Flexport states that factories are "closed and/or operating at diminished capacity for at least 4 weeks". Maersk describes output falling 2-3 weeks before the holiday and full capacity often not returning until mid-March. Practically:
- Ramp-down starts 2-3 weeks before, as workers travel and orders are cut off.
- Full stop across the official holiday.
- Ramp-up is slow — a meaningful share of workers do not return to the same factory, so output climbs over several weeks rather than resuming.
Assume the last reliable China departure is early-to-mid January 2027 and that anything not booked by then competes for pre-holiday space at pre-holiday rates.
What to do about it
- Book Golden Week cargo now. The rate rise starts in the second half of September, not in October.
- Set a cut-off date with each supplier in writing for CNY, and treat it as a commitment rather than a target.
- Do not assume rolled cargo will be recovered quickly. After a major holiday the backlog clears slowly — how to avoid missed sailings.
- Budget for air on at least one order. It is cheaper to plan it than to buy it in week one of February.
- Watch the Middle East lanes. Ramadan begins roughly two days after Chinese New Year 2027, so Asia-to-Gulf cargo takes both slowdowns back to back.
- Confirm free time at destination. Holiday-period arrivals often sit while consignees are closed — estimate demurrage exposure.
More on booking through a squeeze: how to book through peak season and scenario-based freight budgeting.
Post your pre-holiday requests early or find forwarders at each origin.
