This is a short-cycle update, written as of 25 September 2026. Our September market update, published on the 21st, set out a sharper Gulf and a longer peak season. This post does not repeat it. It covers only what has changed in the last four days, separates what named sources have reported from what has not been confirmed, and ends with what shippers and forwarders can sensibly do this week. It makes no forecast: several of the items below are still moving, and we say so where that applies.
The short version
- Hormuz traffic is still a trickle. Reuters-reported tracking data put commodity vessel crossings at 10 on Wednesday 23 September, up from 7 the day before, against a 10-day average of about 17. Other trackers count differently, and none show a return to normal.
- A merchant ship was attacked again. The bulk carrier Cape Dao was hit off Oman's Musandam coast on 23 September and one seafarer died. Reports differ on the weapon, and no attacker has been named in the sources we read.
- The US blockade of Iran-bound traffic continues. CENTCOM said that as of 23 September it had redirected 115 commercial vessels since resuming the blockade on 14 July.
- Diplomacy is reported but unresolved. Reuters reported that the US and Iran are discussing a phased deal. Iranian officials were quoted rejecting a step-by-step process.
- The Red Sea signals are mixed. The EU is asking for more warships for Operation Aspides, while the Financial Times reported Houthi assurances to the EU. Container capacity through Bab el-Mandeb is still far below its old level.
- Diesel is at record highs in the US and was reported at its highest in Europe since 2005, which feeds trucking and drayage costs.
What changed on Hormuz
Traffic: still far below normal, and counted differently by everyone
Reuters, citing preliminary shipping data, reported that 10 commodity vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday 23 September, up from 7 on Tuesday, and below the 10-day moving average of about 17. Nine were inbound (dry bulk Supramaxes and an empty gas carrier) and one was outbound. Separately, IMF PortWatch recorded a single transit for 20 September against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day. One outlet citing a US official put Wednesday's total at around 60 ships, which shows how much the count depends on what is counted (all vessel types, only commodity carriers, only AIS-visible ships) and where the line is drawn.
For a container shipper the useful reading is not any single figure. It is that every source agrees the strait is carrying a small fraction of its pre-crisis traffic, and that day-to-day swings of a few vessels tell you very little about whether liner services can resume. As of this week we have seen no announcement of container carriers resuming normal Gulf calls through Hormuz, and Gulf-bound boxes continue to move through alternative ports, which we come to below.
The Cape Dao attack
The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged bulk carrier Cape Dao, on passage from the UAE to India, was struck about 2.5 nautical miles off Musandam, Oman, at around 06:30 UTC on 23 September. A fire broke out in the engine room and one crew member, an Indian national, was killed. Oman's navy helped evacuate crew, and India's Foreign Ministry condemned the attack. Coverage differs on what hit the ship: one report described two torpedoes, while early social posts spoke of drones. Nobody had been publicly identified as responsible in the sources we reviewed, so we do not name an attacker here.
What matters operationally is the pattern rather than the ship. This was a bulk carrier, not a container vessel. But every attack on any merchant vessel in this area feeds the same underwriting decisions, and it came days after the blockade tally and diplomatic reports below. We have not been able to confirm from a primary source the September incident count that some trackers have circulated, so we do not quote it.
The blockade tally
CENTCOM stated that as of 23 September its forces had redirected 115 commercial vessels under the renewed blockade, which resumed on 14 July after an earlier phase that ran from 13 April to 18 June. Two points are worth keeping straight. First, the figure counts vessels turned away, not seized or disabled ships. Second, CENTCOM describes the blockade as covering traffic to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas, and says other commercial traffic in regional waters may continue. For a shipper with no Iranian counterparty, the blockade is therefore not the direct barrier to Gulf trade. The direct barrier is the risk and cost of transiting Hormuz at all, which the blockade does not resolve either way.
Negotiations: reported, not agreed
Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased arrangement that would reopen the strait and end the US blockade. In the same reporting cycle, Iran's security chief was quoted saying there is no step-by-step process and that the strait stays closed until Tehran's conditions are met, including an end to the blockade. Those two positions had not been reconciled as of today. Treat any headline about a deal as a report about talks, and plan on the basis of what liner carriers actually announce, not on diplomacy.
What changed on the Red Sea
The Red Sea picture moved in two opposite directions this week, and both are reported by named outlets.
On the cautionary side, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas wrote to member states on 19 September asking for more naval and air assets for Operation Aspides, citing an increased level of threat. Reports at the time put the mission at six warships against an original indication of at least ten. Kallas also pointed to Houthi control of Mocha port, Perim Island and the Hanish Islands. EU defence ministers are due to discuss the matter on 28 September and the Foreign Affairs Council on 12 October.
On the reassuring side, the Financial Times reported, citing sources, that the Houthis told the EU in a letter that they would not target European ships in the Red Sea and that their activity would not affect navigation through Bab el-Mandeb. That is a report of a communication, not an observed change in behaviour, and it says nothing about ships linked to other countries. A carrier deciding whether to route a service through Suez will not rely on a letter.
The container market data shows why caution is justified. Xeneta reported that capacity transiting Bab el-Mandeb in August was double that of a year earlier but still only 23% of the level before the Red Sea crisis began (an average of about 212,600 TEU a week in August 2026 against roughly 930,700 in August 2023). Routing via the Red Sea saves around 11 days on a China to Genoa service compared with the Cape, so the commercial pull back to Suez is strong, and the partial return is real. It is also uneven. For more on why the two routes behave differently, see Red Sea, Cape Routing and the 2026 Capacity Squeeze.
Rates, capacity and cost lines
| Item | Latest reading | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Composite container spot rate | $4,468 per 40ft, down 1% week on week | Drewry World Container Index, 24 September |
| Shanghai to Rotterdam | $3,485 per 40ft, down 4% | Drewry, 24 September |
| Shanghai to Genoa | $3,835 per 40ft, down 5% | Drewry, 24 September |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles | $7,838 per 40ft, up 2% | Drewry, 24 September |
| China to Jeddah | $10,870 per FEU | Xeneta, 10 September |
| China to Khor al Fakkan | $10,626 per FEU | Xeneta, 10 September |
Two things stand out. Asia to Europe rates have started to soften as effective capacity recovers, and Drewry said it expects a further decline next week because recovering capacity outweighs blank sailings, while flagging Middle East tensions as a continuing concern. Transpacific rates are holding. And the Gulf alternatives are in a different league: Xeneta calculated that China to Jeddah is up 256% and China to Khor al Fakkan up 479% since 28 February, when the Hormuz closure began, with longer transit times and worse reliability on top of the rate. Those two ports are now established routing points for Gulf-bound cargo, and the landbridge and multimodal routing guide explains how the onward legs work.
The last cost line is fuel. Reuters and Bloomberg reported record diesel prices in the US around 21 September, with the AAA national average reported at about $6.51 a gallon, and European diesel reported at its highest since 2005. This is not an ocean surcharge, but it lands in inland haulage, drayage and last-mile costs, and it may appear as fuel adjustment lines on quotes. For how those lines are built, see Freight Surcharges Decoded: BAF, CAF, PSS and Every Fee on Your Invoice.
War-risk cover: the cost that changes quotes
War-risk premiums for Gulf transits have risen sharply this year. Trade-press and insurance-industry commentary put hull war-risk premiums at 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value for Hormuz transits, against 1 to 3 percent earlier in the year. These are trade-press figures, not published tariffs, and they vary by ship, flag, cargo and the day. We cite them as an indication of scale, not as a rate you will be charged. The practical point is that a war-risk line is a moving cost that carriers and forwarders pass on, usually with the right to change it at short notice, so a quote that includes one needs a clear validity date. Our guide to war risk and emergency surcharges explains how to read and challenge them.
What shippers should do this week
- Do not build plans around the deal reports. Talks are reported and the parties' public positions differ. Keep both a base and an alternative routing ready. Our Strait of Hormuz shipper playbook sets out the decision points.
- Ask for surcharges by name and by date. For any Gulf, Red Sea or Asia to Europe quote, ask which war-risk, emergency, Cape or congestion lines are included, whether they are fixed or floating, and when the quote expires. A quote with no validity date is not a price.
- Confirm the routing in writing. On Asia to Europe, ask whether the service goes via Suez or the Cape. An 11 day difference to Genoa is large enough to break a delivery window.
- Re-cost Gulf-bound cargo through Jeddah or Khor al Fakkan. Get the full door to door number including the onward truck or rail leg, not only the sea rate.
- Check cargo insurance wording. Ask your insurer or broker how war and strikes cover applies to your shipment, including the areas excluded. Do not assume a standard policy covers the transit.
- Add fuel to the inland budget. If diesel keeps rising, expect adjustments on drayage and trucking lines even where the ocean rate is flat.
What forwarders should do this week
- Shorten quote validity on exposed lanes. Where a carrier can re-price at short notice, quoting a price valid for weeks passes the risk to you. State which surcharges are pass-through, and see quote validity and rate expiry for how to word it.
- Tell customers what you know and what you do not. A note that says reported by Reuters, not confirmed is more useful than silence or a confident guess. Customers with cargo booked for Gulf delivery need a decision date, not reassurance.
- Keep a second route costed. Have the alternative port and inland leg priced before a booking is at risk, not after.
- Watch three dates. EU defence ministers meet on 28 September, the Foreign Affairs Council on 12 October, and Drewry's weekly index on Thursdays. None of these is a forecast: they are the scheduled points where announcements are likely to land.
What we left out, and why
Several items circulated on social media this week that we have not included. A claim that Houthi forces struck Saudi energy infrastructure at Yanbu is one we could not confirm from a wire service or official source, so we omit it. A September incident tally of at least a dozen ship attacks, attributed to a think-tank tracker, is likewise not something we could check directly, so we do not repeat it. And the widely repeated figure of 10 ships crossing on Wednesday describes commodity vessels in one data set, not all shipping and not container ships. Where a fact is unconfirmed, this post either hedges it or drops it.
Finding help on the affected lanes
If you are trying to move cargo to or from the Gulf, the Red Sea corridor or Asia to Europe, the quickest route to a live price is to ask several providers the same specific questions. You can browse forwarders by country, city and trade lane in the CargoLinked directory, and shippers can post a freight request on the requests board so eligible forwarders can quote. Listings are self-published, so check each provider's credentials and insurance before you commit, and pay attention to the validity date on every quote.
