Container and Air Freight Market Update, Late October 2026

As of 27 October 2026, the container market has stopped drifting down on Asia-Europe and is flat but very high on the transpacific. Drewry's World Container Index rose for a second week to $4,585 per 40ft on 22 October, its highest in 15 weeks, led by Asia-Europe. Xeneta and Freightos both show US-bound spot rates level, and carriers have lifted announced blank sailings from 34 to 56 in two editions of Drewry's tracker. In the air, tonnage and rates rebounded after Golden Week. This update covers 13 to 27 October only; for what came before, read our mid-October update and the early October update. Customs and tariff changes are in a separate post, Trade Policy and Customs Update, October 2026.

What changed in container spot rates this fortnight?

The main change is the direction of Asia-Europe. Drewry's composite was $4,351 on 8 October (covered in our last update). Its 15 October reading was $4,485, up 3%, mainly on Asia-Europe, and its 22 October reading was $4,585, up 2%, with increases on all major east-west trades. Xeneta's 23 October update says Far East to Europe rates had hit what its chief analyst, Peter Sand, called an "invisible floor" the week before and have now begun to rise after a steady fall since July.

The table below lists the latest prints from each index, labelled with its own publication date. The indices use different baskets, origin ports and timing, so compare a lane across weeks within one index, not across indices.

Sources: Drewry's World Container Index page (22 October) and its 15 October headline as carried by Hellenic Shipping News; Xeneta's weekly ocean update of 23 October; Freightos's weekly update of 20 October. Xeneta's Mediterranean rate was $4,442 (up 5.8%) and Drewry's Shanghai to New York $10,166 (up 1%).

Reading it. All three sources agree that US-bound rates are essentially flat after the early October dip and Europe-bound rates are higher than a fortnight ago. Xeneta puts its US rates still about 340% above its 28 February 2026 baseline (its pre-Hormuz-crisis date) and North Europe about 67% above. Its chief analyst, Peter Sand, expects US rates to soften through the rest of 2026; that is a forecast, not an outcome. Freightos noted that daily transpacific rates were showing signs of increase in the week of 20 October despite cooling volumes, possibly because of capacity cuts as the lane enters its slow season.

Is the Red Sea return pushing Asia-Europe rates down?

Not at the moment, and this corrects a common assumption. More capacity routed through Suez should ease Asia-Europe pricing, and through the summer it did contribute to the decline. But Xeneta's 23 October update says rates are rising even as Red Sea services return and release ships into the global fleet, and Sand attributes that to demand: Far East to Europe volumes were up 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026. Freightos's 20 October update adds that carriers are pushing general rate increases ahead of 2027 long-term contract negotiations, and that some forwarders doubt the increases will stick. Both of those are reported views of the market, not settled facts.

What is measurable on the return itself:

• Capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb. Xeneta's 16 October update reports scheduled weekly capacity crossing in at least one direction of 448,273 TEU on 5 October 2026, about 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023 before the Cape diversions began, and roughly double the level of 27 August 2026.
• Suez sailings. Drewry's 22 October commentary counts 55 Suez Canal sailings in week 42, up from 54 in week 41, so the build-up is gradual.
• Maersk. El Estrecho Digital reported on 20 October, from a call between the Suez Canal Authority and Maersk, that Maersk's COO expects all its services to use the canal by March 2027. The report calls this an expectation, not a timetable; its traffic figures come from the canal authority, and Riviera reported that Maersk stopped short of confirming the date.
• Timing. Freightos (20 October) says estimates point to transits fully recovering in the first quarter of 2027.

For the background on why the Cape routing squeezed capacity, see Red Sea, Cape Routing and the 2026 Capacity Squeeze.

Blank sailings and post-Golden Week capacity

Carriers are cutting capacity again. Drewry's Cancelled Sailings Tracker of 23 October expects 56 blank sailings across the major east-west trades in weeks 44 to 48 (26 October to 30 November), out of 714 planned, an 8% cancellation rate. The edition of 9 October, which we reported last time, counted 34 out of 713 (5%) for weeks 42 to 46. The two windows overlap but are not identical, so treat the rise as a direction, not a precise like-for-like change.

• By trade (23 October edition): Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean 54% of cancellations, transpacific eastbound 32%, transatlantic 14%.
• Week-ahead announcements (22 October WCI commentary): two transpacific blank sailings next week, down from six this week, which Drewry reads as more effective capacity there; eight Asia-Europe blank sailings, up from two. Drewry expects the transpacific to be stable and Asia-Europe to rise slightly next week.

Congestion is easing at the origin end. Drewry reports vessel waiting time at Shanghai falling from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42. If you want the mechanics, our guide to blank and void sailings explains what a cancelled sailing means for a booking.

On schedule reliability, Sea-Intelligence's latest releases we could confirm (29 and 30 September) cover August, and no September report was listed by 27 October, so we quote no September figure.

US ports: record September, and rail is the tight spot

September volumes were published in the window and were records at both San Pedro Bay ports.

• Port of Los Angeles (reported by gCaptain, 13 October): 1,042,652 TEU, a record month; loaded imports 545,696 TEU (up 19% year on year), loaded exports 125,751 (up 10%), empties about 371,206; nearly 8.1 million TEU year to date. Executive Director Gene Seroka said consumer demand remains resilient.
• Port of Long Beach (reported by FreightWaves, 16 October, from the port's 15 October briefing): 997,177 TEU, up 25% year on year; loaded imports 509,390 (up 31.3%), exports 91,747 (up 7.8%).
• Dwell times (Supply Chain Dive, 21 October, citing a 15 October release from the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association): rail dwell rose to 7.19 days in September from 6.75 in August, and local truck dwell to 3.18 days from 2.95. PMSA called rail the area of greatest pressure.

These are September arrivals, so they describe the peak that has just passed, not what is coming. The NRF Global Port Tracker of 8 October already said the busiest point was likely behind us. Import-heavy shippers should read the records as a reason to allow for slower pick-ups, not as a signal about November rates.

Air cargo after Golden Week

WorldACD's weekly reports show the dip and the rebound.

• Week 41 (5 to 11 October, published 19 October): global tonnage down 1% on the week and up 9% on a year earlier, a third straight weekly fall tied mainly to Golden Week. Global spot rate $3.55 per kilo and full-market rate $3.13, both flat on the week; spot was up 34% and full-market up 29% year on year. WorldACD cited jet fuel prices up 111% year on year (IATA and Platts data) as feeding fuel surcharges.
• Week 42 (12 to 18 October, published 26 October): global chargeable weight up 2% on the week as Asian exports restarted, with Asia Pacific up 9% (to Europe up 13%, to the US up 10%). Global rates rose 4% on the week and were roughly 30% above a year earlier. Asia Pacific to the US rates rose 6% on the week and 41% on the year; Asia Pacific to Europe tonnage was down 16% on the year. WorldACD expects a strong transpacific peak but a more uncertain Europe picture.
• Freightos Air Index: on 13 October China to North America was up 3% and China to Europe down 7% to $3.58 per kilo; on 20 October China to North America was up 19% to $6.88 per kilo and China to North Europe up 8% to $3.87, with the global benchmark about 30% above last year.

WorldACD tracks forwarder chargeable weight and rates across its data set; Freightos's index is a lane-by-lane spot benchmark, so do not combine them. WorldACD's week 42 rate changes are percentages only. IATA's September figures had not been published by 27 October as far as we could find, so the August data in our 6 October update is still the latest. For how rates are built, see how air freight pricing works.

Gulf air capacity is the other moving piece. WorldACD's week 41 report says Gulf capacity fell 4% on the week, about 20% below its late-February level, after attacks on several Saudi airports including Riyadh's King Khalid International. Freightos (13 October) reported that Houthi missile attacks had shut Riyadh airport operations and some foreign carriers suspended services, though Saudi Arabia is not a major transhipment hub.

Hormuz and the Red Sea: what was reported

The security picture got worse in the window, and the reporting needs careful attribution.

• GFS Pride (13 October). gCaptain reported on 14 October that the Singapore-flagged container ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, caught fire and sank, and that the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore confirmed this. All 21 crew were evacuated safely. A second Singapore-registered ship, GFS Giselle, had hull damage and reached anchorage under its own power. Iran claimed without evidence that GFS Pride hit a naval mine; that claim is unverified.
• Threat level. gCaptain reported that the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) maintains a SEVERE threat assessment for the Strait of Hormuz. A search-indexed summary of a 25 October JMIC advisory indicates the level was unchanged and that UKMTO logged a tanker disabled by a projectile on 23 October; we could not open the advisory itself, so treat that as reported.
• Traffic. Drewry counts only two containerships entering the Gulf in week 42, down from five the week before, because of security risks.
• Houthi and Saudi escalation. Freightos (20 October) says violence is intensifying and that Houthi advances along the Red Sea coast increase their leverage over Bab el-Mandeb traffic.

Container lines are adding Suez services while the risk around the Red Sea and Gulf has not fallen; neither tells you what will happen to a specific sailing. Our Strait of Hormuz playbook covers booking choices for Gulf cargo.

What we could not confirm

• Bunker prices. The most recent bunker index reading we found was from 6 October, before this window, so we do not report a bunker move. Freightos suggested elevated bunker costs may be behind the rise in transatlantic spot rates (about $2,850 per FEU on 20 October, up roughly $200 since late September), which is its inference, not a measurement.
• Carrier surcharge notices. We found no dated, primary Asia-Europe or transpacific general rate increase notice for 1 November 2026 in the window, so we do not list one. Check carrier advisories directly.
• Whether the rise sticks. A second weekly rise in Drewry's index is two data points. Whether Asia-Europe increases hold depends on demand and on how many of the announced blank sailings are actually run.

What to do next

1. When comparing quotes, note which index or basis a benchmark uses and its date. A Drewry composite, a Xeneta lane rate and a Freightos FBX reading are not interchangeable.
2. For Asia-Europe cargo, expect quotes to be firmer than they were in early October, and ask how long a quoted rate is valid and whether it is exposed to a general rate increase or peak-season surcharge. Our guide to blank sailings explains why a cancelled sailing can move a booking date.
3. For US-bound cargo, build in extra days for rail and drayage pick-up, given the September dwell figures, and check with your forwarder whether any blank sailings affect your intended vessel.
4. For any routing near the Gulf or Red Sea, confirm in writing how your forwarder or carrier handles diversions, war-risk charges and delivery delays before you book.

If you need a forwarder for a lane covered here, more than 29,300 logistics companies are searchable by country and service in the CargoLinked directory, and the public requests board lists freight that shippers have posted for forwarders to quote on directly.

This is general market information as of 27 October 2026, compiled from the sources named above, some of which are press reports of other organisations' data. It is not financial, legal, customs or trade advice. Index figures are spot averages, not quotes or contract rates; confirm current rates and routing with your forwarder or carrier.